|
Post by Cwi555 on Mar 30, 2020 17:55:35 GMT -7
There are two primary responses to any crisis. One is data driven, the other is emotion driven. Both color how we perceive and react to any given crisis. The data driven response applies critical thinking skills applied to the evaluation of available data. That is followed by the conception of an action plan, followed by implementation of that plan. An emotional response is usually fear driven. It's not always fear driven, but that is usually the case. Logic takes a back seat to emotion in such a response. Logic would tell us we don't need to corner the market on toilet paper, or buy the store out of short term food such as eggs and milk. Yet people are doing just that. That herd mentality is leading to panic, which is further clouding a large portion of the people's minds. None of that is a new subject for those who would call themselves a prepper. It's been discussed ad nauseam over the years, yet I find several sites, blogs, alternative news, etcetera having memory problems as they decend into the very state of mind they ridiculed not five months ago. There are those who have taken to social media (youtube, facebook, twitter, etc) making claims that are totally unsubstantiated and ignoring any calls to back up their statements with even anecdotal evidence, much less any viable scientific evidence. So what do I call a fact? www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmwww.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.htmlThose are facts, not fear mongering, anecdotal hearsay, or the latest flavor of social media buzz. Politicians have been put between a rock and a hard place on this by the media. They are knee jerking their reactions based on the fear and panic brought on by the media. Rhode Island for instance is stopping anyone from NYC and trying to force them into quarantine. There is a similar condition between Louisiana and Texas developing. Fact is, while Covid-19 spreads easier than influenza, it's proven to be no more deadly than it. At this time and date, for nearly the same time period, there has been a minimum of 10x more deaths from influenza than covid-19. There has been only 0.37% the number of covid-19 cases verses influenza. Let's touch on another problem. abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-new-york-ny-news-update-cases-map/5989875/Cuomo wants 30,000 ventilators. Exactly who will be operating those machines? bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/respiratorytherapistsapril2015_.pdfIf New York had 30,000 machines running at the same time, they'd also have to have ~25% of the total United States qualified work force. Somehow I don't see other states giving up their qualified personnel to operate New Yorks ventilators. If we projected the same numbers/percentages around the world per capita, we are talking millions of qualified people and machines that are somehow susposed to be magiked up overnight. Does anyone here actually believe that to be a viable plan? Fear and panic or data and critical thinking. It's your choice. I know which side of that I fall on.
|
|
|
Post by geron on Mar 31, 2020 2:45:18 GMT -7
Absolutely Excellent . . . as expected when I clicked!!
|
|
|
Post by cowgirlup on Mar 31, 2020 7:06:26 GMT -7
When in this country have you seen a situation where so many people die in one location within a 24 hour period that they need to bring in refrigerated semi's to put the bodies in?
When have so many people been hospitalized that they have to set up alternative locations in parks and arenas to hold all the sick people? In MA they are kicking people out of some assisted living facilities to turn them into hospitals.
When have you seen in this country an infectious illness that overwhelms our medical staff?
The problem I have with the "just the flu/not that many dead" theory is the above is not taken into account. When it's all said and done and the COVID deaths are averaged out over months and taking into consideration the whole US it may not look that bad. But right now, if you're unlucky enough to live in an outbreak city it is really bad.
If this is a hoax it is a blue ribbon winner.
|
|
|
Post by Cwi555 on Mar 31, 2020 7:23:37 GMT -7
When in this country have you seen a situation where so many people die in one location within a 24 hour period that they need to bring in refrigerated semi's to put the bodies in? When have so many people been hospitalized that they have to set up alternative locations in parks and arenas to hold all the sick people? In MA they are kicking people out of some assisted living facilities to turn them into hospitals. When have you seen in this country an infectious illness that overwhelms our medical staff? The problem I have with the "just the flu/not that many dead" theory is the above is not taken into account. When it's all said and done and the COVID deaths are averaged out over months and taking into consideration the whole US it may not look that bad. But right now, if you're unlucky enough to live in an outbreak city it is really bad. If this is a hoax it is a blue ribbon winner. I would ask you where it is you seen me claim it was a hoax? Or for that matter, where I said it wasn't serious? That's alright though, I can fix what seems to concern you. See y'all later.
|
|
|
Post by solargeek1 on Mar 31, 2020 7:33:55 GMT -7
Cwi555, It seemed to me that CGU and others are not saying you think it's a hoax. But in the famous words of Rahm Emmanuel: "You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." And that is what I also see going on here. in the USA as a test run to see how many rights we will give up to stay safe. I do question where the ACLU is (which is generally on the wrong side but should be weighing in here) and why so silent?
|
|
|
Post by cowgirlup on Mar 31, 2020 9:05:30 GMT -7
When in this country have you seen a situation where so many people die in one location within a 24 hour period that they need to bring in refrigerated semi's to put the bodies in? When have so many people been hospitalized that they have to set up alternative locations in parks and arenas to hold all the sick people? In MA they are kicking people out of some assisted living facilities to turn them into hospitals. When have you seen in this country an infectious illness that overwhelms our medical staff? The problem I have with the "just the flu/not that many dead" theory is the above is not taken into account. When it's all said and done and the COVID deaths are averaged out over months and taking into consideration the whole US it may not look that bad. But right now, if you're unlucky enough to live in an outbreak city it is really bad. If this is a hoax it is a blue ribbon winner. I would ask you where it is you seen me claim it was a hoax? Or for that matter, where I said it wasn't serious? That's alright though, I can fix what seems to concern you. See y'all later. It seems on the one hand you are saying it's no worse than the seasonal flu based on the fasts of past seasonal flu death rates. It seems you are saying that the government and other PTB are over reacting and reacting to panic by imposing restrictions, because the facts indicate the death rate will be no worse than the regular flu. Politicians have been put between a rock and a hard place on this by the media. They are knee jerking their reactions based on the fear and panic brought on by the media. Rhode Island for instance is stopping anyone from NYC and trying to force them into quarantine. There is a similar condition between Louisiana and Texas developing.
Fact is, while Covid-19 spreads easier than influenza, it's proven to be no more deadly than it. At this time and date, for nearly the same time period, there has been a minimum of 10x more deaths from influenza than covid-19. There has been only 0.37% the number of covid-19 cases verses influenza.
If that is the case then I have some valid questions which I asked. And I have asked those same questions of those who have presented the death rate facts of seasonal flu and implied that TPTB and people are over reacting. No one answers my questions based on the facts. I had hoped you would have some kind of reasonable sounding response. I have a great amount of respect for you. I would think you would know that by now. But I feel these questions are valid in light of the circumstances. The only other explanation is that the media/government/ whoever is using some kind of trickery to make this thing seem worse than it is. Fake news and all that to scare people into compliance.
|
|
|
Post by crashdive123 on Apr 1, 2020 3:44:46 GMT -7
I don't claim to know where this will end, but I believe that we (as a country) will be OK and learn a lot from it.
Several states (NY being one) were told by health officials a long time ago that they needed more hospital beds and ventilators. They decided not to follow that advice. It was most likely a decision based on $$$.
Another issue with CV is how easily, and rapidly it is spread. I believe that is one of the reasons that hospitals and staff are being overwhelmed. With seasonal flu the cases are spread out over many months, whereas with CV the number of cases are being crammed into a small window. If you have 9 million to 45 million sick each year, 140 thousand to 800 thousand hospitalized each year and 12 to 60 thousand deaths each year but they are spread out over a longer period of time the system is not "overwhelmed".
Everybody stay safe.
|
|
rebel71
Starting to settle in
Posts: 36
|
Post by rebel71 on Apr 11, 2020 1:38:23 GMT -7
A Lot of lessons are being learnt from the current CV Crises, Relating the the UK, For more then 10 Years spending Cuts to our "National Health Service" have now shown glaring shortages, with a panic rush to gear up for the epidemic, Testing is woefully short and weeks behind, And that has in my view "Cost Lives" . Government has spent million's on "Propping up the Economy" this will have to be paid for; So after CV ends, A Economic Crises will most likely follow: I reckon that Like many on here, Rural Living, Selth Sufficiency, And not total reliance of Governments Or Electronics, We will survive and overcome far better then most. There is much to be said for the "Simple God fearing Lifestyle" Just wish the UK had the same Free & Easey Gun Laws Enjoyed by the USA.
|
|
|
Post by thedude74 on Apr 22, 2020 1:06:39 GMT -7
I like numbers. It paints an accurate picture unlike the distortion often caused by "fear and panic".
Much of the world's economy is shutdown, stalled out or close to it. To my knowledge, the first time in history oil futures traded negetive....
Completely overblown for cv19 but maybe not if there is another agenda behind it. Sorry Turkey Lurkey and Henny Penny....the sky isn't falling. Not to say it's all a hoax. However the numbers don't lie. Ever seen the toilet paper, rice, beans, Lysol and bleach sold out due to a typical flu season? Me either.
How many times in history have people and societies given up their freedom and liberty in search of a bit of safety?
You know if "the people" quit turning a blind eye to corruption and getting caught up in the cult of personality and just hung all the bastards from trees publically they'd probably think twice about such things.....but we don't and neither do they.
Government's killed over 100 million of they're own people in the twentieth century. Sounds a hell of a lot more dangerous than a few thousand dead from a flu. At least according to the numbers.
|
|
|
Post by Ceorlmann on Apr 24, 2020 22:09:40 GMT -7
Another glaring difference between CV and the flu is that flu symptoms show up fairly quickly after one is infected. CV doesn't show symptoms, at least to my understanding, for at least a week; and God only knows how many others get exposed to it unknowingly during that same week (especially whens social distancing isn't happening). That's part of the fear factor.
|
|
|
Post by marc on Apr 25, 2020 7:14:59 GMT -7
Another glaring difference between CV and the flu is that flu symptoms show up fairly quickly after one is infected. CV doesn't show symptoms, at least to my understanding, for at least a week; and God only knows how many others get exposed to it unknowingly during that same week (especially whens social distancing isn't happening). That's part of the fear factor.
Four to five days seems to be about average, but it can take much longer - hence the 14 day quarantine recommendation.
The bigger issue is that most people remain asymptomatic or have relatively minor symptoms - they never get sick enough to be tested. The number of people in this category is in the millions.
We know that this virus was rampant in Wuhan in October or even earlier. Thousands of people flew from Wuhan to the USA in the time frame of October through the time that we "discovered" the virus. Based on the infection/spread rate - it is virtually impossible that it lay dormant in the USA without infecting thousands upon thousands of Americans via social transmission in October, November, December and January.
I suspect that we will eventually find that many millions of people have already come through this virus unscathed, so the thousands of deaths represent a lower mortality rate than thought. Add to that, the thousands of deaths falsely being claimed as being caused by Covid 19.
Marc
|
|
|
Post by solargeek1 on May 1, 2020 9:41:58 GMT -7
I posted this elsewhere but would like others' thoughts on the statements and my take on the near and far future.
FROM A FRIEND: Putting on my Swami hat and dusting off my crystal ball...
1. The hospitality industry, unless we have herd immunity or a vaccine, is 70% gone. Tourism will cease to exist as a major source of revenue. Restaurants will do mostly take out and maybe some al fresco tables. 2. Manufacturing may make a comeback, but wages will not be any more than what Amazon or similar companies pay. 3. Even if this disease is defeated, the numbers of work-at-home employees will not decrease dramatically. Big office buildings may become much less common. 4. Local truck farming and local ranchers may see a permanent uptick in business, if they have a good business model.
MY RESPONSE TO HIM: My husband and I have been talking this over reaching the exact same conclusions you reached. Both of us worked in the restaurant industry; myself for 9 years, he for 7 years. Social distancing in the kitchens we worked in is almost a nonstarter. Wearing a mask around the blazing heat of a grill, a broiler, or a sous vide, well I just can't see how that could be done without the cook passing out. Picking up orders, and delivering them one at a time would cause you to have almost no people in the restaurant.
Take a look at almost any cooking show/weekly TV show that revolves around a restaurant and you'll see at least close to what it's really like. Heat, cramped quarters, people brushing against you constantly trying to pick up their orders, and no ability to wash your hands constantly.
Tourism! Ha. Given what we know and where this thing is continuing to go, who in their right mind would do anything but take a car trip? But that would involve going to strange places, restaurants, and staying in hotels. Flying? Most of us probably saw the video that was on the Internet this week that showed a full airplane and people queuing up at the airport on top of each other. I got a lovely email from United airlines president today saying that they were going to take all these precautions. That's great but if the people next to you aren't wearing a mask or choose to take it off or sneeze on you or behind you, well there you go.
THEN TODAY ANOTHER POSTED:
Think back to 9/11.
A few months, maybe a year, after 9/11 things changed. Then, they went back to 'normal'.
If we all make it though this winter, it will be just like the 'flu'. Once there is a vaccine, it will be just like the 'flu'.
Prep minded folks will button up the loose ends we found in the last few months, but your average soccer mom, and baseball dad, will go back to SOP. We're Americans! It's what we do.....
MY RESPONSE TO HER: Assuming your are not being "tongue in cheek"
I have to disagree (respectfully). 9/11 was terrible, life changing and I still can't watch the movies or documentaries about it.
But it was NOT contagious by simply going about what we called "normal life" (and I use the past tense on purpose).
Shaking hands was NOT an act of faith in the other's hygience, exposure or daily activities.
Going to work was not an act of faith. Both of my DDs work in the NEW office set-ups wherein you have NO cubicle, NO office but rather long tables with people placed all along the table. You go to a conference room for a private call. WIDE open spaces all throughout the floors in all the newer buildings (I can only speak to California high tech and Chicago Loop offices). Some older offices with walls/separations may be ok but MANY MANY MANY HAVE LOUSY air exchanger systems.
Airplane travel will not be safe from contagion for years. After 9/11 we instituted safer practices. Now, who will trust that the airlines are doing or will EVER do what needs to be done to deep clean a plane between every flight? Not me. I flew out of O'Hare for decades weekly for work. NO way will they do what needs to be done.
Restaurants - we have covered that. Not possible that all employees or owners will do what must be done to keep all safe.
Vaccines - well there are alot of us who will have to see whether they use aborted cell lines to develop it. Last time I looked, all the vaccines in development (that I could find) used the aborted cell lines. I would be an anti-vaxxer on that one as would many I am guessing. So lack of herd immunity and lack of using 'normal services' by us.
Ok have to go plant my "garden as if your life depended on it" with my new strawberry plants and horseradish!
|
|
|
Post by marc on May 1, 2020 18:50:14 GMT -7
Americans are resilient by nature, so it is difficult to define the new normal. Yes, things will change, but it will be in ways that we aren't seeing yet. I do not think that the abject fear of this virus will permeate the national DNA so to speak. Without addressing specific industries or market segments, I see:
The freeloaders will use this event to further milk the system. The industrious people will buckle down to achieve and excel. I see a much deeper divide coming between the "entitlement class" and the rest of us. The ratio has reached the tipping point. States that have poorly managed their finances for decades will get bailouts.
Federal/state and local debt/deficit will drive everything from this point forward. Desperate people make bad decisions. Desperate governments are far more dangerous.
|
|
|
Post by cowgirlup on May 2, 2020 9:17:35 GMT -7
I posted this elsewhere but would like others' thoughts on the statements and my take on the near and far future. FROM A FRIEND:Putting on my Swami hat and dusting off my crystal ball...
1. The hospitality industry, unless we have herd immunity or a vaccine, is 70% gone. Tourism will cease to exist as a major source of revenue. Restaurants will do mostly take out and maybe some al fresco tables. 2. Manufacturing may make a comeback, but wages will not be any more than what Amazon or similar companies pay. 3. Even if this disease is defeated, the numbers of work-at-home employees will not decrease dramatically. Big office buildings may become much less common. 4. Local truck farming and local ranchers may see a permanent uptick in business, if they have a good business model. MY RESPONSE TO HIM:My husband and I have been talking this over reaching the exact same conclusions you reached. Both of us worked in the restaurant industry; myself for 9 years, he for 7 years. Social distancing in the kitchens we worked in is almost a nonstarter. Wearing a mask around the blazing heat of a grill, a broiler, or a sous vide, well I just can't see how that could be done without the cook passing out. Picking up orders, and delivering them one at a time would cause you to have almost no people in the restaurant. Take a look at almost any cooking show/weekly TV show that revolves around a restaurant and you'll see at least close to what it's really like. Heat, cramped quarters, people brushing against you constantly trying to pick up their orders, and no ability to wash your hands constantly. Tourism! Ha. Given what we know and where this thing is continuing to go, who in their right mind would do anything but take a car trip? But that would involve going to strange places, restaurants, and staying in hotels. Flying? Most of us probably saw the video that was on the Internet this week that showed a full airplane and people queuing up at the airport on top of each other. I got a lovely email from United airlines president today saying that they were going to take all these precautions. That's great but if the people next to you aren't wearing a mask or choose to take it off or sneeze on you or behind you, well there you go. THEN TODAY ANOTHER POSTED:Think back to 9/11.
A few months, maybe a year, after 9/11 things changed. Then, they went back to 'normal'.
If we all make it though this winter, it will be just like the 'flu'. Once there is a vaccine, it will be just like the 'flu'.
Prep minded folks will button up the loose ends we found in the last few months, but your average soccer mom, and baseball dad, will go back to SOP. We're Americans! It's what we do.....MY RESPONSE TO HER: Assuming your are not being "tongue in cheek" I have to disagree (respectfully). 9/11 was terrible, life changing and I still can't watch the movies or documentaries about it. But it was NOT contagious by simply going about what we called "normal life" (and I use the past tense on purpose). Shaking hands was NOT an act of faith in the other's hygience, exposure or daily activities. Going to work was not an act of faith. Both of my DDs work in the NEW office set-ups wherein you have NO cubicle, NO office but rather long tables with people placed all along the table. You go to a conference room for a private call. WIDE open spaces all throughout the floors in all the newer buildings (I can only speak to California high tech and Chicago Loop offices). Some older offices with walls/separations may be ok but MANY MANY MANY HAVE LOUSY air exchanger systems. Airplane travel will not be safe from contagion for years. After 9/11 we instituted safer practices. Now, who will trust that the airlines are doing or will EVER do what needs to be done to deep clean a plane between every flight? Not me. I flew out of O'Hare for decades weekly for work. NO way will they do what needs to be done. Restaurants - we have covered that. Not possible that all employees or owners will do what must be done to keep all safe. Vaccines - well there are alot of us who will have to see whether they use aborted cell lines to develop it. Last time I looked, all the vaccines in development (that I could find) used the aborted cell lines. I would be an anti-vaxxer on that one as would many I am guessing. So lack of herd immunity and lack of using 'normal services' by us. Ok have to go plant my "garden as if your life depended on it" with my new strawberry plants and horseradish! If you opened everything up tomorrow some things would bounce back but it depends on where you are. New England tourism would bounce back to a degree. NYC will not be good for a long time. International air travel will be almost non existent. If they get things under control in the US air travel could slowly recover but it would be years before they made money. I was extremely wary in the beginning of this. Now I am slightly less worried. With proper precautions it is manageable. Things have started to not make sense. If this is so contagious that you can't even be outside with out a mask, or touch any surface then we would all be sick or dead by now, especially the essential workers who in our area are still mostly not wearing any type of face covering. and up until 2 weeks ago the stores were packed with few precautions. Sadly most deaths in our area are from nursing homes and similar facilities. I can understand the fear, not knowing who will get a mild case and who will not recover. Good for you on the gardening. Things are going to get a lot worse as supply chains break down. I read that the shortage of Yeast and hand sanitizer is largely due to finding a source for packaging. The jars for yeast are made in India and that plant is closed and something similar for the plastic bottles for hand sanitizer.
|
|
|
Post by sirderrin on May 2, 2020 18:27:57 GMT -7
Been thinking about this thread a few days now... I was watching this back thing developing back in January.. I told the BossLady this one really had me spooked... We started upping the game on our daily usage preps... We keep certain things at a high level (year plus) and some stuff we tend to run a 3 month supply give or take a week or so.. It works for us... Through about the middle of March I was truly worried - since then I have very rapidly decided they was over blowing this thing... Is it a bad thing yes... Is it the end of civilization as we know it - dont think so.... I cant predict the future but my gut tells me that we will see it reemerge this fall for better or worse... I have watched folks go absolutely stupid over this... I have decided on a personal level I aint going to sweat this any more then any other contagion out there... I value my freedom as much or more then my health depending on your view point... Responsibility and danger comes with personal freedom and each to their own on what level they feel secure with and how much personal liberty they are willing to give up...
It always comes back to the simple point of how much freedom will one trade for security?
You Decide for YOU - I am fine with my choices.
|
|