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Post by Cwi555 on Jul 29, 2017 14:38:49 GMT -7
There is a lot of talk elsewhere regarding various SHTF scenarios. Many folks like to make a game of it positing one threat or another as the basis. Given I don't know anyone with an accurate crystal ball, I feel it's a better idea to identify as many potential threat vectors as possible and assign each a basic rating in terms of probabilities. The threats I do not take into account are those that no one can do anything about. A ten mile wide nickel iron meteor at 75,000 mph relative for instance. Something like that could crack the earth like an eggshell tossed out of a plane at angels 30. Maybe some bateria or a few coach roaches survive, but that's about it. To identify actionable threats, I take a few pages from Maslow's hierarchy of needs.  The basic needs are culturally independent and true of every human on the planet. How the psychological and self fulfillment tiers play out are culturally and religiously dependent in that how they are viewed by the individual differs significantly depending upon religious and cultural backgrounds. They must still be addressed as they are a source of many threats, but they are secondary to the physiological threats. Of the terms Maslow uses, I toss out warmth and rest and insert the term shelter, which when combined with the other four covers them. Food, water, shelter, safety, and security become my lower tier. That said, anything that can adversely affect any or any combination of those five becomes a threat vector. With that established, we move onto how the upper tiers can affect the base. Therein the waters get muddy. However, approaching development of your personal vector list should inmo, begin from the base up. Brainstorm with trusted friends, or even a forum such as this, but at the end of the day, if you haven't developed at least 100 potential threat vectors, you haven't given it enough thought. Once you've identified them, assign probabilities. How you rate them is purely subjective. It can be as simple as 1-5, or in my groups case, a full historical survey looking for precedence of it having happened before, locally, regionally, or in the world as a whole. In our case, we also take into account future shock, as in something that hasn't happened before because it wasn't possible before. Examples of future shock being global nuclear war, HEMP, genetic warfare, AI ramifications, etc. Once you have your list and have assigned probabilities, work your way down from the the most to least probable and develop a plan to mitigate and or annul each threat. By the time you complete that, commonalities should have become apparent. In those commonalities, the acquisition and application of appropriate resources should also have become clear. That is something folks new to survival and those well acquainted should imo do. A, To avoid wasting resources and B, identify what is actually needed, vs what is wanted. That's my approach, YMMV |
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Post by solargeek1 on Jul 30, 2017 11:19:52 GMT -7
CWI, I only wish we could do planning in that fashion. While I have given it a lot of thought, my DH is just now retired and thinking about it. Clearly, barring a huge nationwide EMP, we have the power/water situation solved. The food situation has also gone fairly well in that I keep learning from my mistakes, keep putting food away, and keep learning better ways to prepare the meals with minimal outside preps.
House is good, security not so much. I am pushing to practice guns as DH does not want me to do it without him. But he never wants to make time for it. So I will have to work harder on that.
Being that we are fairly religious, and follow what Our Lady has said
in Medjugorje about upcoming chastisements due to the degradation of the faith and sinfulness of the world, (no surprise for anyone here), we raised our girls knowing things were never going to stay the same. But they both married guys who live and breathe "the internet, JIT shopping, no supplies, things will continue as they are and get better with technology."
So we are hoping when the bad stuff starts, the kids will all make it here.
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Post by ColcordMama on Jul 30, 2017 12:12:31 GMT -7
I'm planning on barricading myself in an Amazon warehouse.
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Post by missasip on Jul 30, 2017 12:51:45 GMT -7
I'm planning on barricading myself in an Amazon warehouse.  Not even going there .... Jimmy |
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Post by thywar on Jul 30, 2017 13:39:21 GMT -7
I'm planning on barricading myself in an Amazon warehouse. If I can find those tall women I'm doing the same. I mean that's where Wonder Woman came from. Sign me up. |
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Post by Cwi555 on Jul 30, 2017 14:18:33 GMT -7
There is no time like the present to start. Even folks well into it can benifit by way of using the process to identify strengths and weaknesses. Your husband just now thinking about it can be a boon to it. A fresh set of eyes so to speak. CWI, I only wish we could do planning in that fashion. While I have given it a lot of thought, my DH is just now retired and thinking about it. Clearly, barring a huge nationwide EMP, we have the power/water situation solved. The food situation has also gone fairly well in that I keep learning from my mistakes, keep putting food away, and keep learning better ways to prepare the meals with minimal outside preps. House is good, security not so much. I am pushing to practice guns as DH does not want me to do it without him. But he never wants to make time for it. So I will have to work harder on that. Being that we are fairly religious, and follow what Our Lady has said in Medjugorje about upcoming chastisements due to the degradation of the faith and sinfulness of the world, (no surprise for anyone here), we raised our girls knowing things were never going to stay the same. But they both married guys who live and breathe "the internet, JIT shopping, no supplies, things will continue as they are and get better with technology." So we are hoping when the bad stuff starts, the kids will all make it here. |
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Post by marc on Jul 30, 2017 16:09:48 GMT -7
I'm planning on barricading myself in an Amazon warehouse. If I can find those tall women I'm doing the same. I mean that's where Wonder Woman came from. Sign me up. LOL, that was quick. Ahhhh Wonder Woman - be still my beating heart! My daughters really loved watching that show.......uh huh, that's it..... But on a serious note, I can't help but see the world falling into chaos. At least two of my daughters are better prepped than I am. Both have more food/general supplies, more ammo and better escape plans than I do. It is no coincidence that they are both 100% debt free, and are actively learning how to Macgyver stuff. Marc |
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Post by solargeek1 on Jul 30, 2017 16:12:31 GMT -7
If I can find those tall women I'm doing the same. I mean that's where Wonder Woman came from. Sign me up. LOL, that was quick. Ahhhh Wonder Woman - be still my beating heart! My daughters really loved watching that show.......uh huh, that's it..... But on a serious note, I can't help but see the world falling into chaos. At least two of my daughters are better prepped than I am. Both have more food/general supplies, more ammo and better escape plans than I do. It is no coincidence that they are both 100% debt free, and are actively learning how to Macgyver stuff. Marc This just means you raised those girls right! Now just follow their lead. |
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Post by cajunlady87 on Jul 30, 2017 16:14:09 GMT -7
Well done Marc, their parents are no slouches for having taught them well and for them keeping their eyes open.
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Post by marc on Jul 30, 2017 16:35:00 GMT -7
Thank you to both of you, but I have five daughters and only two are doing what is required....... the others are oblivious.
All of them did learn hands on and get dirty stuff from me from an early age. All of them can change spark plugs, but it's the mindset that I am concerned with.
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Post by missasip on Jul 31, 2017 12:36:48 GMT -7
The pyramid works from the bottom up I suppose for me. I've created my own personal "box"...though I have those relationships, I'm not the same as I was when I was 21 years old. I have to believe for myself that those that I care about will either get on board or they will get left behind. Certain individuals know the plan regardless of what it may become. Certainly most should agree that regardless of what a shtf starts as, it will morphe into something else. That "something else" is what I worry about more than the rest of it.
For me, if I can make some sort of longer range plan like most of us do, then I've done what I can.
Having worked the job I did for 30 years and living where I do, natural shtf can and will happen. Ice storms, tornadoes and 'canes....been there done that a bunch. Been through 6 'canes including Camille and Katrina. Have been on 3 'cane restoration trips. 4 ice storm trips. And worked 3 major tornados in Mississippi. I've seen what people do and how they react and handle it when it gets dicey.
That 3-14 days after the initial event is VERY critical. You get by them and your chances get better by the day of either surviving it or becoming a victim. Least that's what I've seen. And for me it just tells me it can happen that way in ANY SHTF...
Good thread cwi....
Jimmy
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Post by kutkota on Jul 31, 2017 13:20:24 GMT -7
I've got a pretty good decision tree for lack of a better term at work that I got from someone. I'll see if I can upload it here, it's in exel and you can assign percentage points based on your criteria to help make your next move do to speak.
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Post by USCGME2 on Aug 1, 2017 19:50:17 GMT -7
Well done, good use of Abraham's pyramid. As an adjunct, I would offer the five stages of grief as a template of sorts that I believe could be applied to a SHTF scenario;
Denial - it is not a river in Egypt! This is the OMG, there is NO WAY that $h!+ just happened moment. The denial can last seconds or you could never come out of it at all. When it does HTF, there will be many who don't heed what the are seeing and will simply refuse to act. This is not limited to long term event horizons either. Denial will appear just as quickly on acute situations as well. It is a natural initial response to overwhelming stimulus but, must be overcome to apply survival metrics.
Anger - Oh no! That ain't gonna cut it! Hell to the no! Rage, fury, frustration, cursing, and general discontent usually follow once the event is recognized for what it is. The duration is limited only by the personality of the individual.
Depression - Woe is me...I just lost my...Ill never get up from this...how will I go on??? This that moment of desperation where the mind is struggling to carry on. The survivor either reaches down for that deep seated drive to live or cashes out right here.
Bargaining - Often referred to as th fox hole prayer. Funny thing about this stage, it always appeared to me to be most irrational of them all. JMO.
Acceptance - Now that we have settled in to the reality of our predicament, we can get to the business of our self preservation. This is where all the majic happens and we get to work!
This is only intended to be a thumbnail sketch and not comprehensive. I think keeping in mind where you might be in a given situation on this spectrum may help propel you to the stages where we get a grip on reality and start tilting the odds in your favor.
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Post by marc on Aug 2, 2017 5:26:20 GMT -7
USCGME2: I think that is a good analysis.
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Post by orly152 on Aug 5, 2017 8:51:17 GMT -7
I became familiar with Maslow's hierarchy of needs during my police academy days which one of the law professors used for a training block. Manslow surely nailed it putting that thing together. I honestly do not see how we can make it with all the things that are going on. Something sooner or later will give...we are all going to die ! Seriously, no matter what comes our way we must prepare to the best of our abilities and manage with what we have when the time comes. As for CWI space rock theory, I am currently looking into making a space capsule out of aluminum foil to try to survive the blast. I can always crap in the capsule and eat potatoes for the rest of my life like in that movie the Martian...lol
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