Gold and Barter Items are Terrible Preps

[woodyz]

Venezuela, and why Gold and Barter Items are Terrible Preps

Like most preppers, I’ve been following the ongoing collapse in Venezuela with great interest, under the assumption that at some point we’ll have our own version of that here in the States. One of the most amazing things to me is how in all of the videos it’s like Black Friday everywhere all the time, with people clawing past each other to get at those stacks of gold bars and silver coins. Er, wait, that’s not how it’s going down, at all.

People are shooting each other in the streets over food–not ammo, cigarettes, liquor, gold coins, silver coins, or any of the other crap that preppers love to stockpile “for barter when TSHTF.” That’s right, it turns out that good old-fashioned food is the only thing that you can actually eat in a collapse, and as worthless as the Venezuelan bolivar is right now, “sound money” is pretty much totally absent from all the discussions I’ve read of what the average Venezuelan is desperately worried about scoring when he wakes up every morning.

As for the Venezuelans who are “holding physical,” as the goldbugs like to say, the only thing they could possibly exchange that stuff for are bolivars, given the very tight currency controls that the country is under right now. They won’t be getting USD for it, and they certainly aren’t going to trade it for food because, again, there is no food.

In a collapse, food is scarce and people are hungry. Nobody is going to trade you a box of .357 or a Gold Eagle for a chicken, because unlike the latter two things, chickens are edible, and the edible stuff takes priority.

I get why preppers like these “barter item” type preps. It’s because you can accumulate them in small increments, and you can fantasize that you’re buying low and you’ll “sell high” when the time comes. It’s old-fashioned speculation, something that has universal appeal to the gambler in us. But like all other speculation, it’s dangerous and there are way better vehicles for accumulating real value.

(Note that I think gold definitely has its place in any portfolio, but as a form of insurance, not as speculation.)

As the Venezuelan collapse amply illustrates, you need to have your priorities straight, and a dependable source of calories should be at the very top of the list. Don’t get suckered into wasting money, time, and space on stuff you can’t consume but that you think someone will trade you a bit of their food for, because you’re certain to be gravely disappointed.

www.alloutdoor.com/2016/06/08/venezuela-gold-terrible-prep/

[missasip]

I hate it but that guy has no clue about PMs and barter items. Venezuela at this point is a short term SHTF. It may go a year or it may turn into a long term situation. At that point is where long term preps such as PMs, liquor, clothes and whatever would come into play. For short term you better be ready to eat and protect you and yours.

He's right for the moment, but wrong overall IMHO.

Jimmy

[Cwi555]

In the short term, no one cares about anything other than what they need for immediate survival, that being food, water, shelter, health, and security.

That part is correct enough.

However, it is a short sighted approach. Once those things are secured, thoughts turn toward bettering ones lot. First it will be items thst enhance the primary five but are not necessarily required. Then comes minor comfort items.

At that stage, those who are still around won't be carrying their newly defined wealth around in buckets or bags, nor will they be taking fiat currency.
If it's not a skill being traded, what will be recognized? A lot of folks sorely underestimate this stage. It is to me the largest hole in most plans.

History is pretty clear on this stage. PM's will and do come into play at this point. Reaching back into antiquity and forward into current times, it has never been any different for any group of people or society that survived one cataclysm or another.

That gets us to another point. There is more than one way to accumulate PM's at that time. One is to gather them before the balloon goes up, the other is to gather supplements to the basic five and or early stage comfort items for trade. Both have positive and negative points to them, but if done right, both net the same result.

This gets us to the recovery stage. A basic tenet of human condition is covetousness. The vast majority of people want what they don't have. People in general are rarely satisfied with a given quality of life. I realize the religious connotations of the word, but it is what drove humans to build the world we live in now. The word covetousness holds two distinct meanings in the human condition.
One meaning is bad, the other is good.

Bad definition;
1. to desire wrongfully, inordinately, or without due regard for the rights of others

Good definition;
2. to wish for, especially eagerly:

It is the good side of it that I speak of.

People want their family to be in comfort, they want their children to have better lives, so they covet and strive for those things that can make that happen. As society etc strives to return to some semblance of normalcy, trade will shift from those items required to survive, to those items required to thrive. The larger the item, the less likely a cage full of chickens or a few more 357 rounds will be taken. Therein is where PM's will come to front. PM's will be taken as a store of value in the intermediate time before script or currency is trusted again (if it's trusted again). It is this time that can make the difference between living comfortable or being forced to eke out a living leaving you in a much weaker position to survive should it relapse into chaos before you can get established.

[missasip]

Jun 17, 2016 7:57:14 GMT -7 Cwi555 said:

In the short term, no one cares about anything other than what they need for immediate survival, that being food, water, shelter, health, and security.

That part is correct enough.

However, it is a short sighted approach. Once those things are secured, thoughts turn toward bettering ones lot. First it will be items thst enhance the primary five but are not necessarily required. Then comes minor comfort items.

At that stage, those who are still around won't be carrying their newly defined wealth around in buckets or bags, nor will they be taking fiat currency.
If it's not a skill being traded, what will be recognized? A lot of folks sorely underestimate this stage. It is to me the largest hole in most plans.

History is pretty clear on this stage. PM's will and do come into play at this point. Reaching back into antiquity and forward into current times, it has never been any different for any group of people or society that survived one cataclysm or another.

That gets us to another point. There is more than one way to accumulate PM's at that time. One is to gather them before the balloon goes up, the other is to gather supplements to the basic five and or early stage comfort items for trade. Both have positive and negative points to them, but if done right, both net the same result.

This gets us to the recovery stage. A basic tenet of human condition is covetousness. The vast majority of people want what they don't have. People in general are rarely satisfied with a given quality of life. I realize the religious connotations of the word, but it is what drove humans to build the world we live in now. The word covetousness holds two distinct meanings in the human condition.
One meaning is bad, the other is good.

Bad definition;
1. to desire wrongfully, inordinately, or without due regard for the rights of others

Good definition;
2. to wish for, especially eagerly:

It is the good side of it that I speak of.

People want their family to be in comfort, they want their children to have better lives, so they covet and strive for those things that can make that happen. As society etc strives to return to some semblance of normalcy, trade will shift from those items required to survive, to those items required to thrive. The larger the item, the less likely a cage full of chickens or a few more 357 rounds will be taken. Therein is where PM's will come to front. PM's will be taken as a store of value in the intermediate time before script or currency is trusted again (if it's trusted again). It is this time that can make the difference between living comfortable or being forced to eke out a living leaving you in a much weaker position to survive should it relapse into chaos before you can get established.

Thank you. Well said. My thoughts exactly.

Jimmy