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Post by Cwi555 on Jan 18, 2013 19:04:51 GMT -7
An ammunition shortage was forthcoming with or without the recent scare. Lets just use Ruger's numbers. 1.5 million firearms. Lets assume the new owners of those firearms want an average of 100 rounds per firearm. 150 million rounds just for those new firearms.
The world produces ~14 billion rounds of small arms ammunition a year. 39 percent of that is produced in the USA (5.46 billion).
The majority of that goes to military stockpiles/supplies.
The missing element here is the added new gun owners in America.
In 2010 the NRA estimated there were 300 million firearms in America. If only fifty rounds were purchased for each of them on average, it would make 15 billion rounds. That's more than the entire worlds production in 2010. When demand exceeds production, shortages are going to happen. This latest scare put it behind considerably further than it already would have been.
It's my opinion that for those reasons, there will be a very long delay in getting back to normal 'if' it ever does.
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Post by alex on Jan 18, 2013 19:35:39 GMT -7
I agree but we have to consider what is "normal". If your normal is seeing a few boxes of .22 LR, typical hi-power rounds like 30-06, 270, 308, 7mm Win Mag...and the standard buckshot, slug and bird loads on the shelf, and a few boxes of the standard 9mm, .40S&W and .45 acp.... then I don't think it'll take but 9 months to a year....if you're normal is walking into a fully stocked grand opening of the newest Bass Pro...then yep...it'll be a while.
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Post by Cwi555 on Jan 18, 2013 19:53:17 GMT -7
I agree but we have to consider what is "normal". If your normal is seeing a few boxes of .22 LR, typical hi-power rounds like 30-06, 270, 308, 7mm Win Mag...and the standard buckshot, slug and bird loads on the shelf, and a few boxes of the standard 9mm, .40S&W and .45 acp.... then I don't think it'll take but 9 months to a year....if you're normal is walking into a fully stocked grand opening of the newest Bass Pro...then yep...it'll be a while. I don't think it will return to normal. The numbers do not support that. As for what normal is, it is subjective to the normal places a given person purchases their ammunition. |
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Post by alex on Jan 19, 2013 19:23:35 GMT -7
CWI555...the more I think about it the more you're right....$3.25 per gallon gas is now "Normal" where as 5-6 years ago it was not. The tighter the demand gets the higher the prices will go and once people see that you'll pay $3.25 for that gallon...why bring it back down to "yesterday's normal"  That would be taking profit out of their own pockets and we all know that will never happen. With the rising costs of metals...what do you see as "normal" in 3-5 years for ammunition such as the .22 LR the .223 Rem and some of the high power rounds such as 30-06, .308 and 7mm mag? |
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Post by Cwi555 on Jan 19, 2013 20:45:22 GMT -7
With the rising costs of metals...what do you see as "normal" in 3-5 years for ammunition such as the .22 LR the .223 Rem and some of the high power rounds such as 30-06, .308 and 7mm mag? Read more: survivalbunker.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=guns&thread=3922&page=1#44608#ixzz2ITwXq23cThere are many variables to that question. Economic, political, and social variables will play a roll in it. Metals are not the only aspect of it either. Environmental protection laws are beginning to play a roll in the production of powder and primers as well. On the low end for 5 years out; .22 up 17% .223/5.56 up 31% 7mm up 52% .308 up 39% 30-06 up 42% The high end cannot be determined. An economic collapse will have occurred for that. It is equally likely in that event that it won't be traded in fiat currency, but rather tangible goods. However, if 'a' currency is around, those percentages will look gas from the 60's compared to today. . |
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Post by solargeek1 on Jan 19, 2013 22:45:03 GMT -7
And just try getting a magazine. At least ammo is still out there. We shall see how long it takes to get magazines.
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Post by mud on Jan 19, 2013 23:07:47 GMT -7
ran into our county commissioner today and he was trying to buy a factory mag for a Savage mark 2. he had no luck either.
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Post by Redneckidokie on Jan 20, 2013 13:43:25 GMT -7
You got ammo at your place? WoW, None to be had here at any price. Along with every thing else.  Glad I filled my 'clip', with all seven 22 bullets last summer, now I'm good to go. LOL And just try getting a magazine. At least ammo is still out there. We shall see how long it takes to get magazines. |
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Post by solargeek1 on Jan 20, 2013 13:54:14 GMT -7
Got plenty of .40 caliber S&W - lots on shelf; boxes of 100s and 50s. Also got and had plenty of target load for 12G shotgun. Lots of other But NO magazines. Ordered and now wait . . . . .
Getting ready to have shooting day with BIL and nephew who are bringing the guns for us to practice.
Figured I had to have some ammo to give them to thank them for the day. (As well as dinner of course).
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Post by lumberman on Jan 20, 2013 17:07:33 GMT -7
Luckily for me Iowa is usually behind the rest of the country, last week was the first time the ammo case at wally world was empty of everything but the uncommon calibers.
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Post by Underground on Jan 20, 2013 19:53:11 GMT -7
Our Wal-Mart just got in the 555 round boxes of .22 . Been out since the Connecticut shooting. 9 mm too. They have 7 boxes of 100 and 22 boxes of 50. But now all of the 40 cal is gone.
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Post by Cwi555 on Jan 21, 2013 3:05:32 GMT -7
And just try getting a magazine. At least ammo is still out there. We shall see how long it takes to get magazines. What magazines are you looking for? |
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Post by crashdive123 on Jan 21, 2013 3:32:39 GMT -7
There were more magazines and ammunition available at the gun show I attended this weekend. The prices were high (supply and demand) and some calibers were scarce. The big ammunition dealers that normally attend were not there.
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Post by mud on Jan 21, 2013 3:37:16 GMT -7
The new sportsman's guide I got has tons of magazines offered and this weekend they still had several that were not back ordered. prices still pretty low and many they offer a bulk buy(3 pack)that cuts the price down a little more. just a little FYI, not a hijack
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Post by Redneckidokie on Jan 21, 2013 4:08:59 GMT -7
Sure would like to have some of that 22 (555) packs in my neck of the woods. Me and my Cuz usually take all the kids and grand kids out on weekends to burn at least three of those boxes, he called friday crying he was out and all the family was po'ed they couldn't go shoot on these warm days. LOL  |
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That would be taking profit out of their own pockets and we all know that will never happen.
